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Weather Alert Maps

epawaalert2

1st major winter storm of the season expected Wednesday:
EPAWA FINAL CALL

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Synopsis: A storm system will move north-northeastward from the Carolinas and rapidly develop, bringing heavy snow and a mix of rain and snow further southeast. Dynamic cooling will play a role in NW areas especially, bringing the threat for the first major snowfall of the season on Wednesday and Wednesday evening.

Timing: From south to north, precipitation begins in the pre-dawn hours or right at dawn on Wednesday, ends early to mid-evening Wednesday evening. For more specific timing by individual county, subscribe to the My Pocket Meteorologist text/email alert program at the following link: http://epawaweather.com/my-pocket-meteorologist-seasonal-option

Discussion:

***Most will not understand the technical discussion below, so we will summarize it here. We are expecting the warm air and cold air to meet right along I-95 and this temperature gradient will fuel very intense precipitation. This intense precipitation will be strong enough for the potential to produce thundersnow and very heavy snow rates immediately north of that gradient line to about 50 miles NW of it. The transition from rain to wintry mix to snow will be very narrow and this will fuel the lifting of air***

The models are all coming into agreement on the higher snow totals but they vary on where the axis is, and they vary with thermal profiles. The 18z NAM allowed 700mb to get above freezing into eastern PA, which is the most aggressive. Other guidance including the European shows the 700mb warming staying east of Philadelphia. This means that we will stay mostly frozen or have the ability to change to snow quickly with dynamics. And the current satellite imagery is impressive and shows this, but we want to go more in-depth. Below is the Short Range Ensemble Forecast for 700mb Frontogenesis and Equivalent Potential Vorticity:

Screen shot 2014-11-25 at 4.32.30 PM

This is valid for 7AM Wednesday. Notice the very strong forcing combined with the shaded areas. These shaded areas are highlighting the instability aloft. By looking at cross sections we can detemrine that at 7AM a lot of convective instability is around between Harrisburg and Atlantic City.

Screen shot 2014-11-25 at 6.46.24 PM

Theta-e lines backing over themselves show us the convective instability present in the atmosphere during the time of increasing lift. The lifting will allow this instability to be realized and lead to very rapid parcel acceleration. This will help cool the column and drag the cold air down to the surface. This could bring temperatures down to freezing in a good part of eastern PA fairly quickly. But the thing here is that the very dynamic system can overcome a little bit of warmth even with an aggressive solution. This is why we are higher east of I-95. IF the warm air is too much then we may hit the lower numbers in our ranges on the back end, and in that area only. Northwest of I-95, especially far northwest, appears to be a lock.

As we go through time the convective instability signature lessens over the region but we still have some conditional symmetric instability available along with some MUCAPE from roughly 550mb into the snow growth region. Verbatim it is very weak, but with strong lifting this could become more impressive.

Screen shot 2014-11-25 at 7.11.08 PM

We have a conditionally stable layer from roughly 600mb up to 500mb shown on the sounding and we can see this on the cross section, also with the wide spacing. A few areas of CI still show up, but the wind profile through this conditionally stable layer is one that favors the release of CSI. The strong SW vertical shear will aid in the development of SW to NE snow bands across the eastern half of PA into NJ and NY. But the main reason why we are thinking thundersnow is because of the particle separation with lots of graupel and snow pellets within the column with ice crystals. With a very deep layer above -10C it is not great for snow ratio, as this allows a lot of supercooled water droplets to remain in the majority of the cloud. This comes in contact with the snowflake falling through this region and freezes on to it. The result is graupel or snow pellets. But with a lot of ice crystal formation from above with the ample moisture depth into the higher levels of the atmosphere we will see enough to produce snowflakes at the sfc mixed in with the sleet/graupel in areas along I-95.

Screen shot 2014-11-25 at 6.55.55 PM

Forecasters: DeFino/Martrich/Peterson/DiMartino/Hallett/Carmella 26NOV0100z

My Pocket Meteorologistâ„¢ text/email alert program gives the latest detail on timing, impacts, and amounts expected well in advance of any winter storm, specific to where you live/work… to become a subscriber, click on the image below:

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Current Watches, Warnings and Advisories for Pennsylvania Issued by the National Weather Service

...SNOWSTORM EXPECTED FROM DAYBREAK TO LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL... .A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND THE WESTERN CATSKILLS FROM DAYBREAK INTO THE EVENING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST... LESS SNOW IS EXPECTED. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER DOWN TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE
Author: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Posted: November 26, 2014, 9:13 am
...SNOWSTORM EXPECTED FROM DAYBREAK TO LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL... .A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND THE WESTERN CATSKILLS FROM DAYBREAK INTO THE EVENING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST... LESS SNOW IS EXPECTED. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER DOWN TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE
Author: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Posted: November 26, 2014, 9:13 am
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... * LOCATIONS...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND THE POCONOS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES.
Author: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Posted: November 26, 2014, 9:05 am
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... * LOCATIONS...THE RARITAN VALLEY...THE LEHIGH VALLEY...BERKS COUNTY AND THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PHILADELPHIA SUBURBS. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES.
Author: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Posted: November 26, 2014, 9:05 am
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... * LOCATIONS...PHILADELPHIA...THE NEARBY PENNSYLVANIA SUBURBS AS WELL AS MERCER AND MIDDLESEX COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. * HAZARD TYPES...WET SNOW.
Author: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Posted: November 26, 2014, 9:05 am
...HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY TODAY WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE PRIME HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD... .A STORM SYSTEM JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY SPREADING A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
Author: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Posted: November 26, 2014, 8:34 am
...HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY TODAY WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE PRIME HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD... .A STORM SYSTEM JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY SPREADING A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
Author: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Posted: November 26, 2014, 8:34 am
...HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY TODAY WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE PRIME HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD... .A STORM SYSTEM JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY SPREADING A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
Author: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Posted: November 26, 2014, 8:34 am
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 8 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY IN GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITY AND SNOW ACCUMULATION.
Author: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Posted: November 26, 2014, 8:03 am
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MOSTLY 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED 4 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. * SNOW BEGINNING...AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. * PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING.
Author: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Posted: November 26, 2014, 8:03 am

Current Watches, Warnings and Advisories for New Jersey Issued by the National Weather Service

...HEAVY WET SNOWFALL TO IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL INTO TONIGHT... ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY... * LOCATIONS...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.
Author: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Posted: November 26, 2014, 10:23 am
...HEAVY WET SNOWFALL TO IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL INTO TONIGHT... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY... * LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTY...COASTAL SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...AND NORTHERN NEW LONDON COUNTY.
Author: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Posted: November 26, 2014, 10:23 am
...HEAVY WET SNOWFALL TO IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL INTO TONIGHT... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
Author: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Posted: November 26, 2014, 10:23 am
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... * LOCATIONS...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND THE POCONOS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES.
Author: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Posted: November 26, 2014, 9:05 am
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... * LOCATIONS...THE RARITAN VALLEY...THE LEHIGH VALLEY...BERKS COUNTY AND THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PHILADELPHIA SUBURBS. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES.
Author: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Posted: November 26, 2014, 9:05 am
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... * LOCATIONS...PHILADELPHIA...THE NEARBY PENNSYLVANIA SUBURBS AS WELL AS MERCER AND MIDDLESEX COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. * HAZARD TYPES...WET SNOW.
Author: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Posted: November 26, 2014, 9:05 am


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